2011 the year of reckoning

I have been an optimist for most of my life with no real regrets apart from discovering that I could not fly and that my bones did break when landing at speed.  The last time my optimism waned was during Mrs Thatcher's experiment in monetary economics.  I was working in Glasgow and responsible for programmes designed to help the most disadvantaged to salvage some hope on the back of unemployment, poor housing, collapsing infrastructure and a cycle of despair mitigated only by the indefatigable humour and family and community altruism.  But life was kind to me even during this deep recession.  I had a job that could make a difference to people's lives and I was blessed by becoming a parent of three children. The joys of watching and nurturing young children is the greatest of all life's many episodes.

The recession in 2008 was deep and damaging, created not only by the corruption of international banking but in part by the then government's infatuation with the financial sector and Gordon Brown's self portrayal as the British Gordon Gekko - 'its not always the most popular man that gets the job done.'  The actions taken to rescue the banking sector were both brave and effective so that by 2010, the recession seemed to be under control and most of the economic indicators from last year would bear this out although the cost in terms of public sector borrowing was unsustainable.   The new coalition government, anxious to attribute any blame for future economic failure on the outgoing government, displayed its lack of experience by speedily announcing a range of spending cuts and new policies that were neither politically sound  nor well thought out.  You can't govern on the back of a coalition agreement cobbled together in 3 days. They did not seem to understand that there is a decision lag of a year or more between the announcement of policies and when they take effect.  Time should have been taken to look at the evidence and listen to the experienced advisers who would have identified the stumbling blocks and real cost of the proposals, for an earlier rant on this see Day 101.  2011  will be the year of reckoning as the coalition headline decisions of last year become the real frontline issues of this year.

The prime minister's bold belief that we are on the verge of economic growth and that the policies the coalition are introducing will repair the financial damage do not float in my reservoir of optimism.  I have real fears about the damage that will be inflicted on our economy and services in the not too distant future.  So here are the issues that might make or break the coalition but more worryingly wreak the greatest damage on our future wellbeing.

1. On the world stage are we to be 'nationalistic' in supporting actions which ostensibly safeguard our narrow interests or are we to be 'principled' in supporting international action which focuses on human rights and encourages trade and development which is both sustainable and egalitarian.
2. Economic recovery in 2010 has been fragile and is in danger of petering out as the public expenditure cuts, tax increases - including VAT and the fuel escalator - converge with rapidly rising commodity prices.  This could severely restrict consumer spending, damage the service and retail sectors, particularly our town centres, and in turn lead to a further hike in inflation.
3. In Europe will the scepticism of the Tories become ascendant over the europhile tendencies of the Lib Dems?
4. Will the referendum on the Single Transferable Vote be successful or will Tory opposition and the electorate anger at the Lib Dems kick it and other constitutional change into touch.  If so what are the Lib Dems for?
5. As Councils and other public services make staff redundant or give early retirement to hundreds of thousands, will there be a reaction about the cost of this as well as public sector pensions and a campaign by the media to replace the bankers as the merchants of greed with public servants?
6. Public services are a means of providing universal access to services from roads and transport to recycling, libraries, sport, arts, care and education as well as the regulation of public health, buildings and the environment.  These are fundamental to the quality of life but will be severely downsized and in some instances withdrawn, this will not play well with the public as is becoming evident from the most unlikely quarters.
7. Equally important Councils are the custodian of local economic development and community well being.  Whilst some services can be provided by both the public and private sectors there is a need to guarantee access to services for all and to avoid the creation of two tiers of services dictated by purchasing power rather than the rights of all citizens.  Fairness is the watchword of the Lib Dems but it is doubtful that this will happen by charging for many services which are currently universally available. 
8. Whilst the protests about Education to date have been about student tuition fees, a far greater impact will arise from the reduction of pre school provision.  Evidence shows that this is where achieving greater opportunities for the most disadvantaged and improved outcomes is most effective.  The coalition are removing funding from Sure Start which will lead to many closures and seem far more interested in creating free schools, although the first one has yet to become operational, and letting the market rip in the provision of universal education.  Even their preferred model for schools based on Canadian experience is essentially driven by strong provincial education authorities, which is not acknowledged by Michael Gove because this is at variance with his partisan political philosophy. 
9. The current proposals to reform the NHS seem to have been dreamt up in a think tank devoid of practitioners as well as thinkers.  The NHS has improved dramatically over the past ten years, maybe at too high a cost owing to drugs and salary reviews, but patients have been impressed.  Asking GP practices to sort out the budget cuts as well as the PCT overspending is tantamount to creating a turmoil even greater than when Aneurin Bevan introduced the NHS in 1948.  Andrew Lansley is no Nye Bevan and even his handling of flu jabs suggests he will not be immune from the epidemic of health scares ahead.  Little imagination is required to see what will happen to when patients and health professionals pool their angst.
10. Our infrastructure and transport systems were the victims of huge underinvestment in the latter part of the twentieth century.  There was a significant catch up over the past decade but governments in both UK and Scotland are focusing on the headline projects. There will be a deterioration in the maintenance and investment of local infrastructure.  Initially this will be blamed on inefficient councils but this will not wash with an ever more vigilant and information savvy public.  The winter damage will amplify the scale of these issues. Bins and roads matter as the coalition will soon find out.
11. We have had a steady reduction in crime over the past decade and record policing levels.  I am not sure that the two are directly related as various studies have shown that it is pre school education, job opportunities for young people, better housing and income support that are stronger indicators of a falling crime rate.  However as each of these services go into decline there will be an increased workload on the Police and the Justice system.
12. Heritage and Culture may be lightweight issues in the minds of the new boys on the block but a confident society (Big or Small) celebrates its achievements using a wide range of arts.  There are institutional national and local treasures which are the custodians of our artistic and cultural endeavours and will struggle to survive.  We cannot rely upon News International and its ilk who have no sense of responsibility for nurturing the future arts or celebrating our heritage.
13. Sport and Leisure might also seem peripheral but wellbeing depends upon quality leisure time. Team work, collaboration, and community participation in sport is grounded at the local level.  If the Olympics is the measure of elite achievement, it is local provision and participation of sport and leisure activities that is the foundation for future excellence. And for most of us local leisure activities are a key provider of well being and enjoyment.  This seems to be little understood and opportunities for future generations could be devastated as the coalition marginalise these activities or look to the private sector to assume responsibility. 
14. One of the growth industries of the past decade has been in lobbying and this has been exploited by many quangos and voluntary organisations to secure central government funding.  Central government was always partial to gaining the kudos from these grants which kept local government out of the game, they were too likely to set local priorities. This funding is now drying up and the previous dependency on local government grants cannot be resurrected in the current financial climate.  There are mutual reasons of despair for the third sector, the quangos, professional associations and the lobbyists.  It will be interesting to see how this plays.
15. The final issue is around the curious incident of the 'Big Society'.  It is an ill defined concept about something which really matters.  The way that government relates to its citizens has changed totally through the internet and mobile communications and the consumer is increasingly able to comment on and help improve the services or goods it receives.  Feedback is in real time and community engagement is swift when things go wrong or are threatened.  Communities can and will increasingly act collectively to find new ways of supporting the vulnerable and acting in concert on the wicked issues.  But not at the beckon call of central government.  We need strong 'peerie' communities to act as lightning conductors on the impact of changes and the instigators of improvements to services.

But there again the PM may be right, we will see.