What Now after Covid?

Who knows how or when this will end? Badly, yes and Bigly too. I have been working with some former colleagues producing a paper on the need for mutuality and localism to be the key values as we try to rebuild, or more likely, reinvent our communities. The prospects are grim for the economy. Millions of people have lost their jobs and thousands of businesses have lost their customers or are left with obsolete products or services. But like the banking crisis of a decade ago, there is the danger that government will put the protection of its funders and their lobbyists first.

As well as the devolved governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland setting their own timetable for how and when lockdown should be eased, the northern cities and towns are beginning to challenge the confusing proposals emerging from the government. There is also a clamour from workers and businesses to be engaged in drawing up proposals so that they have a stake in how to safeguard workers as the economy reopens. The lack of transparency of decision making so far has been mendacious and has destroyed the trust in the government. Simply saying that "we are following the science" no longer convinces a sceptical public who are reading and hearing the said scientists challenging the government's blandishments.

Leaving aside the issue of easing lockdown, there are some far more significant issues that will need to be tackled as the estimated deficit in the UK is now running at over £337bn for the year. It is estimated that the GDP could collapse by as much as 25%, which is ten times higher than ever previously recorded. Already the debate has begun about the possibility of further public expenditure cuts or tax increases across the board. Promises of "we will do whatever it takes to beat the pandemic" are beginning to sound like unfulfilled pledges as many businesses and councils are now discovering.

At the same time there is a realisation by people that the improvement in air quality, a reduction in noise levels, the elimination of traffic congestion, kindness and mutual aid in local communities and more friendly, caring and respectful personal relationships are worth keeping. This is one of those rare epoch moments when massive change in how we live is possible. There is a strong desire to avoid reverting to 'normal ways' and to reap the harvest of new ways of working, learning, travelling and socialising that have been sown during the lockdown. Putting the quality of life, health and wellbeing above the pursuit of money, material possessions and status, aspirations that have dominated groupthink in recent decades, could be the long term prize in the search for a happier and less fretful society.

The Prize

Commuting without vehicle pollution

Another main cause of pollution

There have been a number of developments during lockdown that will hopefully survive and thrive in a post Covid epoch.

• Working from home or a local hub that provides workspaces and the tools of conviviality.
• Communicating and meetings online, saving unnecessary journeys and time.
• Commuting less often and at more flexible times.
• Learning online for children and students as part of a wider syllabus that requires face to face contact.
• More engagement, management and mutual aid by communities.
• Greater health awareness.
• Online shopping and deliveries.
• Less dependency on fossil fuels through commuting and travel reductions and a switch to e-bikes and e-vehicles and that should include buses and delivery vans
• Production and consumption of more locally produced food through local delivery networks
• The kindness of strangers
• Debasing of money as the currency for success or happiness.

Euston, we have a problem - social distancing

Meetings, quicker and cheaper

But there are difficult decisions that will need to be taken to safeguard some of the benefits of lockdown and to source the funding for the cost of furloughing the workforce, cancelling business rates and paying for the health and care costs of the pandemic. There are already a number of academic papers evaluating the options with the Oxford Smith School.of Enterprise and the Environment bringing together many of the findings. Translating some of these findings into policies will require a far more rigorous analysis by academia but here are a some things I would start with; the aim being for greener, fairer and more equal outcomes.

1. Abandon the Heathrow expansion, air travel will be greatly reduced by travel restrictions, higher fares and customer confidence. Featherbedding the air industries according to the academic studies is the least sustainable of all policies.
2. Cancel HS2, there will be less long-distance commuting with home working and online meetings. What is needed is a railway network with modernised signalling, new rolling stock and a more rapid upgrading of lines in the north.
3. Increase the carbon tax on fuels for vehicles and planes to offset the reduced fuel tax revenues resulting from the reduction in travel. The collapse of oil prices should ensure that there will be minimal inflation costs.
4. Introduce an online shopping tax to give some protection to local shops
5. Create carbon-free vehicle only zones in town and city centres to consolidate the environmental benefits achieved during lockdown.
6. Reduce journey to work peaks by encouraging 4-day working weeks.
7. Re-introduce renewable energy subsidies to revive investment in sustainable technologies.
8. Legislate for a living wage and workers rights including holiday and sick pay.
9. Engineer a more progressive tax regime to address the inequalities that have been magnified by the COVID crisis
10. Protect local and UK businesses from acquisition by overseas corporations and hedge funds at meltdown prices during the pending economic recession.

I am sure that Michael Gove and the rest of the mythical ministers responsible for government would find reason to dismiss all of these suggestions, which would be an endorsement in itself.