West Central Scotland Plan, 1974

I have been asked by colleagues on several occasions in recent years about the West Central Scotland Plan and where copies could be found. I had been a member of the team that produced the Plan in 1974 but like so much material from that era, it is difficult to gain access to the documents that preceded the advent of the new Regional and District Councils established in 1975. There are references in some academic publications by Urlan Wannop, the Director of the Plan, but no readily accessible references. I have copied the synopsis of the final report in this post and provided a short introduction to the work of the team below.

West Central Scotland Plan (1974)

 

In 1971 the Scottish Office commissioned a planning study of West Central Scotland. It was a period of significant change with the heavy industries of the region in decline and increasing levels of emigration abroad and to other more successful parts of the UK. Until this date, both the Scottish Office and the local authorities had been planning for substantial population and employment growth with the new towns of East Kilbride, Cumbernauld and Irvine taking overspill from Glasgow and the older towns that were carrying out slum clearance programmes. A number of new communities were also planned at Erskine, Lennoxtown and Stonehouse, the latter to become the fourth New Town in the region.

 

The plan was set up with a Steering Committee chaired by Sir Kenneth Alexander, the then Professor of Economics at Strathclyde University and involving Derek Lyddon, the Chief Planner at the Scottish Office, along with several eminent businessmen such as Sir William Lithgow and Sir Hugh Fraser. Sir Robert Grieve, the former Chief Planner at the Scottish Office who had been responsible for the earlier Clyde Valley Plan, and Alan McCulloch of Colin Buchanan and Partners and former chief architect at Cumbernauld New Town were other luminaries who provided support to the team.

 

The team was led by Urlan Wannop, the Depute Director of Planning in Warwickshire County Council. He was seconded for the duration of the study following his key role in preparing the Coventry & Warwickshire sub-Regional Study that had pioneered the use of Development Potential analysis. 

 

The West Scotland Plan team was staffed by economists, planners, transport engineers and cartographers drawn from the Scottish Office and Colin Buchanan & Partners, transport and planning consultants. A number of planners and a dozen data processing operatives were directly recruited. Along with 6 Scottish Office administrative and secretarial staff, there were 40 people working on the plan. The study ran from 1971 to 1974.  Its recommendations were made to the Scottish Office and were subsequently largely endorsed by the new Strathclyde Regional Council when it was inaugurated in May 1975.

 

In essence, the plan revisited the growth projections and identified economic actions, environmental proposals and a development strategy for the region that was founded on more realistic expectations. Its use of Development Potential analysis to identify the optimal investment decisions resulted in a very significant shift in the planning for the region. It recommended halting the growth of New Towns and switching to the urban regeneration of existing towns and Glasgow. It suggested deferring the development of Stonehouse New Town, which was subsequently de-designated following support for this proposal from Strathclyde Regional Council.

It also argued for a greater emphasis on economic revitalisation through investment in indigenous industries rather than the heavy emphasis on the attraction of incoming industry from outwith the UK. Many of these industries from the United States and Japan had received subsidies to move to Scotland were at risk of closing. It also suggested sites for major industrial growth at Cambuslang, Hunterston provided this included steel and North Lanarkshire. It recommended a Strathclyde Development Agency that the Scottish Office accepted but extended to cover the whole of Scotland. The Scottish Development Agency (SDA) was established in December 1975 with a clear proviso to focus on Strathclyde.

The plan highlighted the imperative of tackling poverty, poor housing and unemployment with special emphasis on the areas of greatest need. It also recommended an Environmental Task Force to tackle a major drive for the removal of derelict land working in harness with the local authorities. This responsibility was passed to the SDA along with the responsibility of coordinating the Glasgow East Area Renewal (GEAR) scheme.

The Synopsis of the plan is reproduced below.

West Central Scotland Plan
Synopsis
June 1974

Preface

This is a summary version of the main report of the West Central Scotland Plan published in May 1974. The plan was commissioned by a Steering Committee composed of members of the Clyde Valley Planning Advisory Committee representing the local planning authorities of the region - together with the nominees of the Secretary of State for Scotland drawn from public life and from Departments of the Scottish Office.

The plan contains advisory, economic and physical proposals for West Central Scotland and is intended to serve as a guide to local planning authorities in preparing their development plans and as an outline framework for decisions by developers.

Based on a range of population and employment changes forecast for 1981 and 1991, the plan describes the measures necessary to implement the strategy by these dates as well as an action programme for the period up to 1978.

The main report on the Plan and seven supplementary technical volumes are also available.


A Plan for Action

This is a plan for immediate action to improve the economic, and social prospects and the physical surroundings of 2.5 million people who live in West Central Scotland. It calls for a firm commitment by central government to more effective regional economic policies, a positive drive by local authorities to create the right conditions for growth, and a determined effort by the region’s industry to improve its performance. All these are essential if the region is to overcome its present problems and make for itself a better future.

Since 1940 five the development of the region has been guided by the Clyde Valley Regional Advisory Plan and a succession of central government regional development policies, and by these means, much has been done to improve peoples lives and circumstances. But not everything has turned out as intended. Many of the assumptions on which it was based no longer hold good. Regional aid policies have pumped aid into the region but have not broken the back of persistent unemployment or staunched the flow of migration to more favoured ports of Britain and abroad.

Hence the need for a new plan, which we have prepared at the behest of the West Central Scotland Plan Steering Committee “to serve as a guide for local authorities in preparing the development plans, and as an outline framework for decisions by developers.”

Much of our work has been concerned with trying to understand the economic and social life of the region in the character of its urban and rule areas. In doing this we have been able to study in some depth the potential for growth and change in the region, and its limits. This has led us to the conclusion that West Central Scotland cannot take it for granted and its full potential will be realised. We believe that the long-term prosperity of the region must be looked upon as a prize to be won, not a gift to be expected.

We have found it impossible to predict with certainty what number of people in jobs region is likely to have over the next 20 years we have only identified a possible upper and lower levels. The difference between these two extremes of 383,000 people on 172,000 jobs by 1991 is some measure of the task before the region if it is to achieve maximum growth we believe possible.

This uncertainty means we cannot be dogmatic about the pace of change and the amount of development that is likely to take place. So we have devised measures which will help the region to realise its best expectations but which will stand it in good stead whatever the outcome.

Our recommendations fall into three broad categories: a set of economic policies; a programme about environmental improvement; and a physical planning framework to guide the location and timing of development. The measures proposed under these three heads are interlocked and reinforce one another, but each programme is capable of standing on its own.


The State of the Region

West Central Scotland as a region of many assets. Set within the unparalleled natural beauty of the Highlands, the Firth of Clyde, and the Southern Uplands and Borders, all providing a wealth of opportunity for outdoor recreation on its doorstep, it is the industrial and commercial heart of the country. More than a century of industrial growth has produced people with an exceptional breadth of skills and a variety of specialised firms. Not only enjoys the facilities of the country’s most populous city and region but also shares and helps to support the financial and professional resources centred in Edinburgh.

The Achievements

Recent years have seen many changes in where and how its people live and work as in most of Britain's older industrial regions, it has become less dependent on traditional labour-intensive industries like mining, steelmaking, shipbuilding and heavy engineering and has acquired a significant share of expanding new industries.

At the same time, people and firms have been moving out of the congested urban centres to new growth areas. In 30 years the population of central Glasgow has fallen by 300,000. About 200,000 people have been rehoused in new estates on the edges of the city the new towns have provided 35,000 new houses, accommodating almost 120,000 people. Today, half of the region’s houses have been built since the War, but half the region’s Victorian tenements remain in Glasgow.

The planned dispersal of families from the overcrowded inner-city areas to new estates and settlements and the redevelopment of the older areas at lower housing densities were proposed in the Clyde Valley Plan.

In the event, the unplanned voluntary movement of people from the cities to the suburbs and the surrounding counties and outwith the region altogether, has outstripped the planned moves by nearly three to one.

In recent years an extensive system of major new roads and river crossings has been built up, and road congestion is now mainly confined to the Clydeside conurbation. The Blue Train system has been electrified outwards as far as Wemyss Bay, Helensburgh, Airdrie and Lanark. The Green Belt around Clydeside has largely been maintained. New industrial estates have been developed. These achievements of replanning and reconstruction have been impressive by any standards. But many problems remain.

The Problems

The people of West Central Scotland had not only be moving within the region’s boundaries, they have been moving beyond them. The population has been falling steadily from the peak of 2,525,000 in 1962 to 2,482,000 in 1972. Although the natural increase, the difference between births and deaths has been consistently above the Scottish and British level since 1951, it is not made up for the numbers leaving in search of work and better living conditions. This rate of loss has been proportionately much higher than in any other region in the United Kingdom.

Male unemployment has been consistently higher than any other British region, and the number of jobs available has been failing at a rate generally higher than in other assisted regions. Incomes are been persistently below the national average. The loss of jobs has been particularly severe in and around Glasgow. It and the other older industrial towns have also suffered by a proportionately higher loss amongst higher-paid professional, managerial and skilled workers, leaving behind an increased proportion of people with low and insecure incomes.

In spite of the intensive housing effort by the local authorities the region still has one of the worst housing problems in Britain. Almost a third of the region’s houses were built before 1919, and many of these are in poor condition. In 1970 there were 106,800 below the “tolerable standard” defined by law and a further 22,400 lacked the exclusive use of an inside lavatory, a fixed bath or shower, washbasin, kitchen sink and hot-water system. In addition, less than half the houses on Clydeside have any form of garden and four out of five 4/5 lack a garage.

In many places bad housing is made worse by bad surroundings. About one house in six is an area characterised by some or all of the following deficiencies: lack of grass and trees; shortage of space the children's play, recreation and car parking; shabby houses, vandalism and litter; noise and dirt from nearby industry; and dereliction. Life in overcrowded slums tends to be accompanied by poverty, ill-health and social problems. overcrowding and poor housing. As many as one in ten of the region's people may suffer the combination of low incomes, overcrowding and poor housing.

Over half of the region’s houses or not covered by small control orders. The concentration of smoke and sulphur dioxide pollution in central Glasgow, other parts of the conurbation and the centre of some other towns can, in winter far exceed on the level considered harmful to health.

Outside the towns and, industrial dereliction is widespread particularly in North Lanarkshire. The region has 2950 hectares of land officially classed as derelict and approximately 6,000 hectares more which can be described as wasted and unsightly.

The region's rivers are either grossly polluted or of poor quality for over a fifth of their total length. Less than half the mileage is unpolluted or recovering from pollution. Many sewage treatment works are overloaded and much sewage is still discharged untreated.

An estimated 10,000 people living near Glasgow airport are exposed to excessive noise levels and by the end of the century, the number may be several times greater. A smaller number around Prestwick are similarly affected. Getting on for 10% of the region’s built-up area probably suffers some degree of nuisance from other noise sources, mainly road traffic.


An Uncertain Future

In 1970 there were 970,000 men and women of West Central Scotland. Our examination of future prospects suggests that at worst they could be 56,000 fewer jobs in 20 years time. This will happen if the region's industries only do as well compared to the rest of Britain, as they have done in the past ten years. At best, an extra 116,000 jobs could be available by 1991, but only if the region’s firms manage to expand at the same rate as others in the rest of Britain. Even if the best rate of growth is achieved, new jobs in manufacturing will only just replace losses in other manufacturing firms. The gains will have to come in service and other non-manufacturing industries and the opportunities will grow faster for women than for men. Even on the most optimistic forecasts, the growth in employment will not provide work for all those born and bred in the region. Migration to other regions will continue and unemployment will stay above the national average.

If the highest estimated employment growth is achieved, the region’s population may grow from 2,482,000 in 1972 to 2,568,000 in 1981 and 2,698,000 in 1991. On the pessimistic view of employment prospects, population may fall to 2,323,000 in 1981 and 2,315,000 in 1991, with migration rising to a level matched only in the 1920s.

The latest population forecast by the Registrar General, which allow for a lower birthrate put the 1981 figure at 2,421,000, that is towards the lower end of our range. If it begins to appear that population may fall below our lowest estimates, the prospects of the region will be bleak indeed. The action program for development will have to be slowed down and our proposals as a whole will have to be reviewed. However there is no precedent of such a sustained falling population in any industrialised region of Britain.

In spite of all these problems we believe West Central Scotland can have more influence over its economic future than has been generally accepted. But we must sound a note of caution. The nation as a whole face is a period of economic restraint and uncertainty during which regions like this could fare less well than the more prosperous ones. Moreover, we believe much of the answer to creating more jobs in West Central Scotland lies in improving the quality of management and industrial relations, and these are not changes we can expect to see occurring overnight.


An Attack on Three Fronts

We found the West Central Scotland economy is not performing too well. It is not providing enough jobs to keep the region’s people in work. We have found that, in spite of the massive effort in redevelopment, many people are still badly housed and many more live in ugly and depressing surroundings. We have found that future prospects are uncertain. What can be done to put the regional path to a better tomorrow?

The strategy we recommend is designed to improve the quality of life in West Central Scotland and widen its opportunities so that a bigger proportion of those born, brought up and educated in the region have a chance to go on living and working there. It calls for concerted and decisive action on three fronts, through three sets of interrelated proposals:-

1. A balanced set of economic policies to (a) attract more jobs to the region and (b) improve the performance of existing industry so that it can create more jobs;

2. A comprehensive set of measures to repair and improve the environment, to make the region more attractive to its residents and to incoming industry;

3. An area by area action programme of physical planning to relate the development of housing, industry and transport to the likely changes in population and employment and to support the economic and environmental policies.

The three sets of proposals do not stand or fall together. Each forms a valid course of action on its own. But a coordinated attack on all three fronts will act faster and achieve more than any one step taken alone. Top priority must, however, be given to economic policies. If the snags which have caused the region’s poor employment record are not cleared away there is little chance of hitting all our other targets. Nevertheless, the recommended physical planning strategy is still the best one for the region even if economic performance falls short and employment continues to fall.


The Way to Prosperity

The economic problems of West Central Scotland are virtually without equal in the United Kingdom and are very serious in comparison with other European problem regions. No other part of Britain faces such a daunting task, or such devastating consequences if past trends or not changed. For these reasons, we believe the region is justified in looking for special measures to help economic growth over and above those operating in other assisted areas.

Attracting New Industry

In recent years, the region has lost much of its former advantage over the rest of Scotland and other assisted regions in terms of the incentives available to attract industry attracts new industry. We recommend that this competitive edge should be restored to help achieve a 20% increase in the number of jobs created each year by investment from outside the region. We believe this can be best done by increasing the level of Regional Development Grant from 22% to 28% of the cost of the plant, machinery and buildings with the cut-off point of, say, £5 million to reduce the risk of paying very large grants to projects which might well come to the region in any case, or which might employ few people.

The increased grant should be coupled with the stringent operation of the Industrial Development Certificate policy in the more prosperous parts of Britain, and supported by a good supply of industrial sites and advanced factories in West Central Scotland.

Office Jobs

The grant payable to firms moving office jobs to the region should be increased to cover the entire removal costs together with a standard grant of £700 a year for the first five years for every new job created. Office work, which is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the national economy, has been growing slowly in West Central Scotland. Glasgow, in particular, has many advantages as a potential office centre and its disadvantages, particularly the distance from London, have tended to be exaggerated.

The government must take the lead in breaking down the psychological barriers, which seem to inhibit many firms considering a move to this region. We believe the Hardman Report on “The Dispersal of Government Work from London” is seriously at fault in its methods and wrong in its conclusion that only 1,200 civil service jobs might be moved secure, high-level decision-taking jobs in West Central Scotland, the government will be making one of its most effective contributions to achieving its regional policy aims.

Europe

Since West Central Scotland has severe economic problems even by comparison with other problem regions of Europe, it should be a priority area for aid under the EEC Regional Development Fund.

Local Industry

A better flow of jobs from outside will only go a small way towards meeting the region’s employment needs. At best, it will account for only 20% to 30% of the possible increase in jobs in manufacturing industry. The bulk of growth must be generated within the region. Our analysis of the region’s past economic performance and our projections of future employment prospects both point to the vital role of established local industry which has given rise to many of the current problems but which offers the best hope of solving them.

Three conditions are necessary for a better performance by established industry: a higher rate of national economic growth; a higher investment rate by established industry; and policies which directly improve industrial efficiency. The 1972 Industry Act provides measures to help meet the first two conditions but not, in the way it is being operated at the moment, to improve industrial efficiency.

Poor economic performance in a region like West Central Scotland can be blamed on a number of causes; in the nature of the industry and the region, in particular, the dominance of nationally declining industries like coal mining and shipbuilding is still a problem. Other possibilities are high costs arising from the region’s remoteness from other centres of population and industry, a poor environment and inadequate infrastructure. Some of these factors may contribute to the total picture that they do not account for it. We believe the underlying problems are more to do with weaknesses in labour relations and the quality of industrial management.

The region has a bad record of industrial disputes, considerably worse than the United Kingdom average. Clear evidence of weaknesses in management is hard to come by, but we have gained a definite impression that much local management is conservative, inflexible and lacking in drive. Unsettled labour relations may be partly responsible for, and partly explained by, these failings. More important, these weaknesses have led to a general lack of enterprise in new ideas, and an inability to adapt to new situations and to seek out new activities and markets. The fact that there are many successful firms with good labour relations and enterprising managements only confirms our view that the region’s industry is capable of overcoming such problems.

But it needs help, and help in a form which is directly relevant to the region’s special problems. Traditional regional aid policies are not designed to cope with this kind of situation; they tend to encourage investment. The Selective Financial Aid available under the 1972 Industry Act is needed to help firms modernise and expand, but financial aid alone will not succeed where managements lack the means to take advantage of it. New measures are needed which will help firms to put themselves in better shape to play their vital role in providing jobs.

We believe these could best be provided by a semi-independent public body free to act on its own initiative within broad guidelines laid down by Parliament. We recommend the Government to set up such a body, which we call SEDCOR - the Strathclyde Economic Development Corporation.

SEDCOR should:

• Help to improve industrial efficiency by providing managements with advice, at little or no cost, on marketing, staff recruitment, internal organisation, industrial relations, financial planning, diversification and exporting. The advice should, where appropriate, be backed by financial aid to help introduce the indicated changes. It would, of course, be up to firms individually to decide whether to seek SEDCOR’s services and whether to act on its advice.
• Seek out ideas and opportunities for starting new companies and become involved in such enterprises by providing financial and technical aid and organisational advice. As a last resort, it could itself start a new company where private enterprise is demonstrably not exploiting the commercial opportunity.
• Help with finance and expertise, the reorganisation of declining industries to secure long-term employment prospects and ensure that the structure of growth industries maximizes their potential contribution 
• Draw up an industrial strategy to help select priorities for aid so as to achieve the main objective of promoting greater efficiency, faster economic growth, and a well-balanced increase in jobs. 

We suggest SEDCOR should be responsible to the Secretary of State for Scotland and run by a board whose members will bring in local interests, including the Regional Council, trade unions and industry. The Chief Executive must be a person of considerable ability, initiative and reputation, with a proven record of success in industry or commerce. His staff must be highly professional and experienced and should be paid in accordance with the responsibilities they will bear.

Labour Relations

Responsibility for improving labour relations lies with the employers and trade unions. We suggest that representatives of both sides should get together to discuss the evidence on disputes and the need for improvements. It will be up to them to decide what to do next, but we suggest they set up a series of working parties for the region as a whole and for each industry in the region.

We believe that progress should best be made, however, by an improvement of the collective bargaining process plant level and recommend that the Manpower Advisers team of the Department of Employment should be expanded to help achieve this.

SEDCOR could provide in-depth advisory consultancy and follow-up services linked to selective financial aid to encourage such improvements and help in the development of new techniques where unions and employers are willing to cooperate to show that West Central Scotland is taking an initiative to improve the quality of its industrial relations.


A Better Place to Live

West Central Scotland has a heritage of magnificent natural and man-made countryside, but much of the urban and semi-rural scene is drab and depressing. This is true of some of the new housing areas as well as the older, declining areas. Any steps taken to improve this environment will both change the region’s image and inject new confidence in its future. At a time when everyone is becoming more interested in his surroundings, other industrial regions of making better progress in removing the scars of past neglect. West Central Scotland must catch up if it is to compete effectively for new industry, and retain its native population.

Two things are necessary to quicken the pace of improvement: a much higher level of spending and simpler administrative machinery.

Local government reorganisation offers the hope of a more effective effort in the future, but in their early years the new councils may be too busy with other things to tackle the environment properly. We, therefore, propose the setting up of Environmental Improvement Task Force, financed from public funds and employing skilled specialists and a workforce of unskilled labour.

The Task Force would indirectly benefit the economy of the whole region in two ways. Firstly, by helping to remove the squalor, which has damaged its economic performance. Secondly, by providing jobs and training both of those men, mostly over 40, who have been out of work for a long time and for those temporarily unemployed during the periodic swings in economic activity.

The Task Force will tackle a wide range of work, including the treatment of vacant derelict sites, especially in towns; the provision of permanent community facilities; general improvement of the housing environment; and the treatment of derelict land. It should be able to undertake work on its own initiative, local authorities and other bodies such as Hospital Boards and British Rail should also call upon its services. Either the Task Force or the Strathclyde Regional Council should set up a specialist derelict land unit to provide technical another help to district councils. Wherever possible, the Task Force should use men rather the machines in its work.

By coordinating a wide range of work, the Task Force would be able to carry out an environmental improvement program for the whole region more smoothly and economically than individual councils acting alone. It would also be better able to offer continuity of work and a programme of training and industrial rehabilitation.

The programme of environmental improvement we recommend calls for an extra £20 million a year between 1973 and 1981 on top of what at the moment seems likely to be spent on this kind of work, giving a total budget over that period over that period of £675 million instead of £500 million. This is the cost of putting right most of what is wrong with the environment of the region in the shortest possible time.

Housing areas

More than half the extra money – about £90 million - is needed to clean up and improve the environment in housing areas. Some 137,000 houses are in areas that need urgent attention, and about 71,000 of these are neither in planned improvement schemes nor scheduled the clearance before 1981.

Improvement schemes for these housing areas will cost up to £14million given the present limit of £200 a house on which government grants are based. We recommend that the limit should be raised to a lease £450 I house to help pay for play areas, fencing, car parking, pass, refuse disposal facilities, lighting, and landscaping. This would increase the total bill to perhaps £32 million, or £4.5 million a year. In addition, we recommend that between £50 million and £60 million should be spent on the surroundings of many thousands of homes whose external environment while not needing major improvement, is far from satisfactory.

Derelict houses

Houses which stand empty for a long time waiting for demolition always become a mess and are often a risk to health and safety. Where houses are in such a bad state that there is no real hope of improving them they should be cleared as quickly as possible. But we agree with the Scottish Housing Advisory Committee that when it is possible to give an extra lease of life to houses which fall below the “tolerable standard” but are not scheduled for early clearance they should be patched up. The cost of doing this might be as much as £20 million in 1973- 81.

Derelict Land

Progress in treating derelict land in the region has been slow. At the present rate, it will take almost 20 years to reclaim the 2950 hectares which are officially classed as derelict. On top of this, there are another 6000 hectares which we feel should be counted in a wider definition of derelict. This includes farmland so cut up by mining operations or blighted by dust, smoke or the run-off from spoil heaps that it is no longer worth farming; and urban land which is neglected or blighted because of some forthcoming development. At the present rate of progress, it would take another 100 years to deal with these areas.

A much faster attack on this problem is essential. The procedure for acquiring sites and obtaining grants should be simplified and an extra £25 million should be allocated for treatment.

Clean air

Since the passing of the clean air act in 1956, less than half houses in the region of been brought within smoke control areas. Total coverage will bring the winter average concentrations of smoke below the danger level throughout the region. We recommend that this should be done by 1981. An estimate that the cost could be as high as £12 million may be exaggerated.

Rivers

One mile in ten of the river water in the region is grossly polluted and other stretches run the risk of serious deterioration. More than half the sewage and over three-quarters of industrial effluents fail to meet the standards set by a Royal Commission in 1912. We recommend that sub-standard outfalls should be eliminated by 1981 and that the enforcement of standards should then be strengthened. The Government’s planned level of spending should be raised by £1 million a year in 1973 to 81.

Noise

Extensive soundproofing of houses against aircraft, traffic and other noise may become eligible for assistance before 1981. It is not yet possible to estimate the full likely cost, but if help is given to soundproof against aircraft noise in housing areas exposed to noise levels above 40 NNI, a total cost of up to £10million by 1981 would be involved. Other means of reducing the impact of noise, such as shielding houses from heavy traffic and noisy industry by office buildings, warehouses or trees should be carefully explored.

Conservation

There are nearly 4000 buildings in the region listed as being historically or architecturally valuable. 200 of them are of national importance. Glasgow alone has nearly 900 listed buildings and has been described as the finest surviving example of a great Victorian city. Yet only about 30 listed buildings in the whole region have been grand aided by the Historic Buildings Council. We recommend that public spending on protecting and conserving buildings and groups of buildings should be increased from the recent level of about £100,000 a year to £350,000 a year. We also recommend that increased spending up to £1million a year should be allocated for a programme of country parks and landscape protection and enhancement. The rural and urban conservation programmes together call for an extra £10 million in the period up to 1981.


The Pattern of Change

A physical planning strategy to guide development in the region has to take account of the existing pattern of settlements; the likely changes in population and employment; the need for new sites for housing, industry and other purposes; and the availability of land and its suitability for various uses. It has to be based on an assessment of how many people and firms are likely to want to move to new surroundings–and which places they will prefer – and which centres are most likely to create new jobs.

West Central Scotland has an immense task ahead of itself if it is to build up its population and economy and improve its environment. Great care must therefore be taken to get the best value for money out of its existing assets and the considerable volume of new investment taking place each year. There are economic and social benefits to be gained in the way redevelopment is carried out and the way new developments are sited in relation to one another and to existing development in terms of giving people a wide choice of jobs and good access to shops, schools, recreational and other facilities, for example.

Public spending in the region is currently running at about £1,400 million a year and should rise to between £1,700 million and £1,800 million by 1981. Even a small improvement in the economic and social return on this outlay would be a significant help to the region. In addition, improvements can be sought in the return on private spending, by industry and commerce, and by families on bus and rail fares, rents, mortgages, and other domestic outgoings.

Having taken these considerations into account, we see little scope for radical change in the region’s pattern of settlements. This is because (a) the level of employment and population growth is insufficient, even given the most optimistic forecasts, to sustain completely new settlements, and this gives rise to the further reasons that (b) existing commitments to housing and industrial developments are already adequate for the region’s requirements, (c) most new jobs in manufacturing industry are likely to occur in the existing built-up areas (d) office another service sector jobs are likely to be concentrated in existing towns, and (e) there are many areas which are not suitable for urban development.

These reasons, and our examination of various possible patterns of development, suggest that the best course is to associate most new development with the established economy of Clydeside. This offers the prospect of a more rapid improvement of social and economic conditions in its older residential and industrial areas.

It does not imply neglect of other areas. All the communities of the region are linked together and have a common interest in growth, both within themselves and in the region generally. This strategy, therefore, sees the whole of West Central Scotland as a growth area and does not seek to limit the prospects for growth within existing communities. In builds on existing planning policies and includes all the established growth points. It puts no restraint on their ability to attract new employment not already inherent in the local planning situation.

A strategy which involved a very large switch of emphasis on to development well outside the conurbation would carry the significant risk of extra costs and the losses. A plan which directed a large part of future growth to the new towns would be least capable of adjustments to changing circumstances.

There is already enough land allocated in the new towns and other urban growth centres to meet the likely needs for housing most industry up to at least 1981, and there is a real risk of spreading new enterprise too thinly around these “greenfield” sites.

We, therefore, recommend (a) no further capacity should be planned in the new towns in and associated with West Central Scotland beyond the present population targets and (b) that the Secretary of State for Scotland should consider postponing major investment in Stonehouse New Town until at least 1975. Other projects such as Inverkip and Lennoxtown should also be held in reserve. We also recommend that from 1975 the new towns should fall within the strategic planning responsibility of the Strathclyde Regional Council.

A Two-part Programme

Because of the uncertainty about population and employment trends, our recommendations relate to the short-term period up to 1981 and are designed to keep the longer-term options open.

Our planning proposals for this period are based on our highest estimates of population and employment growth to demonstrate the potential size of the task that lies ahead. The timetable for starting construction and preparing sites and projects will need to be adjusted in the light of later evidence of population and employment trends.

The proposals fall into two parts. Any development intended for completion before 1978 will in the main have to be planned already, and the question will be whether to bring forward or put back the start of work. At the highest rate of growth of the programme for this period involves housing on new sites for 205,000 people, housing redevelopment to accommodate 204,000 people, the creation of 43,000 manufacturing jobs on new sites and 68,000 on existing sites, and the addition of 102,000 service and other non-manufacturing jobs.

All the housing schemes and a large proportion of the industrial schemes should be carried out on land already allocated in development plans. The programme involves a major housing effort in the Glasgow, Renfrew, Kirkintilloch and Cumbernauld, North Ayrshire, Motherwell and Wishaw and East Kilbride areas. The main industrial growth and is in the Glasgow, North Ayrshire, Motherwell and Wishaw and Airdrie and Coatbridge areas.

In the Glasgow area, for example, there are some 355 hectares of land currently earmarked and available for industry, all of which will have to be prepared and developed in 1978. About 72,000 people have to be housed on redevelopment sites and 43,000 on new sites, another 88,000 people from the area would have to be rehoused outside the boundaries, mainly in the Renfrew and Kirkintilloch and Cumbernauld areas.

In view of the size of the task in the Glasgow area, we believe the Glasgow Corporation, and subsequently, the District Council should consider setting up development committees to recording a whole programme in each scheme, including the provision of social services, shops and other facilities. A structure plan for Glasgow area as a whole and local plans for the inner areas will be needed.

The second part of the programme involves preparing plans, specifications and tenders for development which would need to be carried out from 1978 at the earliest. First priority should be given to preparing (a) the later phases of building at Erskine, Cumbernauld and Irvine. (b) additional redevelopment in the Glasgow, North Ayrshire and Airdrie and Coatbridge areas and (c) other residential and industrial projects which could be needed by 1981 at the highest growth rate or 1991 at the lowest.

Special Industrial Areas

In general, we have not specified within the planning areas of the region, where development should be carried out. This is the rightful job of the local planning authorities. We make an exception to this rule, however, in the case of certain potential industrial developments which, because of their size or special needs, can be suitably located only the in a small number of places.

One of the possible areas for this kind of development is the Hunterston peninsular. We accept the conclusion that the further development of the Hunterston peninsula for industry could not be justified for less than the maximum local employment return that has been anticipated and only then for industries for which there is no satisfactory alternative location in West Central Scotland. We consider that the guarantee of major steelworks should be a prerequisite for any further permanent industrial development. The Secretary of State for Scotland has stipulated that industrial development at Hunterston must show beyond doubt that it requires deep water access and that it must confer a major and lasting net benefit to the Scottish economy, particularly in terms of employment.

Other special locations include:

the Bloak Moss area of Ayrshire– for oil refining and related industry;

the coast from Hunterston to Ayr, and Loch Long pipe terminal - shore facilities for Irish Sea gas and oil exploration;

Greenock and Longhaugh – industry needing deep water access;

Chapeldonan – power station

Ardyne and Ardgowan – temporary sites for oil platform construction;

Newhouse, the Clyde Ironworks at Cambuslang, Inchinnan and if necessary Queenzieburn – sites for large single-industry developments.

Putting the Plan into Effect

The action program for 1971-81 points the way for building houses for 203,800 people redeveloped sites and for 204,800 people on new sites by 1978 at the earliest and the planning and preparation of housing programs for another 226,900 people thereafter, to be built as required. It involves the creation of 110,000 600 jobs in the manufacturing industry and hundred and 1700 in the services sector by 1978 dash To offset the anticipated loss of jobs – I’m planning for the creation of a further 63,000 manufacturing jobs and 44,000 service jobs.

Local authority planning for these and associated development requires early preparation structure plans from Glasgow, North Lanarkshire (which comprises the Airdrie and Coatbridge and Motherwell and Wishaw planning areas), Renfrew, and North Ayrshire. To allow for more spacious living conditions, the plan adopted generous housing density standards of 100 persons per hectare and redevelopment sites, and 55 persons per hectare on greenfield sites, and even at these densities found it unnecessary to impinge upon the greenbelt for new residential sites.

Housing

The main task for housing authorities is to replace improve the region’s 129,000 unsatisfactory houses. We expect that increasingly they will want to improve rather than demolish these houses, particularly in the Glasgow area. Some 33,200 houses could be improved, to provide 25,100 new homes. Priority should be given to improving these houses, which are just above the “Tolerable Standard” to prevent them getting worse.

Local authorities will need to build between 59,000 and 104,900 new houses in 1971-81, depending on whether population changes follow the lowest or highest estimates. At the highest level, this means broadly continuing the past average rate of building while the lowest rate involves a severely reduced rate outwith the Glasgow area. Building by the new town development corporations of the Scottish Special Housing Association will need to average between 2000 and 3500 a year, compared with the past average rate of 3,400 a year.

Although local authorities may need to build fewer houses they should be able to concentrate on meeting special needs: houses of a particular size which may be in short supply; “sheltered” housing, and accommodation to single people, the elderly and handicapped.

Private housing

Private housebuilding could rise from an average of 3200 houses the year in the 1960s to between 4000 and 6000 a year depending on the economic performance of the region, the availability of mortgages and a changing attitude towards housing in a region where owner-occupation is low in comparison with the rest of Britain. We believe the local authorities should help and encourage private house building including the inner areas of the conurbation where the exceptionally high proportion of council housing restricts choice.

New Towns

We see no need to increase housing targets and overall capacity of the new towns. Rather we recommend a review of the long term policy with a view to bringing the building programs in line with a view to bringing their building programme in line with the prospective demands and increasing the proportion of housing built for older occupation.

Areas of Greatest Need

The redevelopment of environmental improvement programmes we are recommending will take place mainly in areas where people tend to be poor and deprived, and therefore less capable of standing up to the disruption, uncertainty and personal financial cost involved in these changes. Up to now local authorities have not found a satisfactory approach to do with the variety of social problems that arise in these circumstances. Local government reorganisation offers them a unique opportunity to introduce new methods. We suggest they should consider setting up local committees to review the running of services in redevelopment and improvement areas, in areas of isolated public-housing where there are problems worrying the authorities and the residents, and in small settlements within districts dominated by large urban centres. They should also consider supporting Councils of Social Service to draw together voluntary social work organisations and local authority departments.

Industry

To help meet the employment targets, local authorities will have to put greater emphasis on preparing sites and allocating enough land for industry and offices in their structure and local plans. This is particularly the case in and around the Clydeside conurbation where suitable land for industry has been scarcer than some other areas. A start should be made on preparing for the major new industrial opportunity which will arise at Cambuslang when the Clyde ironworks closes. This will be the most important industrial site become available within the central part of Clydeside for many years.

Transport

Public transport is more important to the life of the community in West Central Scotland than in any other region except London, and its importance will continue. At the moment it is facing severe problems. Buses are losing passengers and operators have raised fares and cut services, leading to a further loss of customers. Train services have been improved and are gaining more passengers but at an increasing financial loss.

We recommend the proposed investment scheme including the Clyderail project and improvements to the Glasgow underground, should be carried out as quickly as possible. Experiments with bus priority lanes, bus feeder services to railway stations, and park-and-ride schemes should be extended. On top of this, operational subsidies for bus and rail are essential if public transport is to play its full role. Without them, fares will have to be increased substantially, and services cut. We recommend that rail subsidies be continued and bus subsidies be introduced to keep fares at a level acceptable to passengers with low incomes and to provide unprofitable but socially justifiable services. The combined cost of investment and subsidies would be about £290 million.

The region’s current road programme involves spending some £141 million in 1973-81 on new roads which are already under construction or at an advanced stage of preparation. This will go a long way towards meeting the needs for new roads. A further £225 million spent between 1978 and 1991 should relieve most of the road congestion problems, providing the emphasis is put on roots approaching central Glasgow and crossing the conurbation from east to west. This must be complemented, however, by stronger parking controls, especially in central Glasgow where parking charges should be raised and the number of spaces restricted to around the present 22,000.

The total cost of this proposed transport programme - about £515 million - is consistent with the Government’s intentions, but it involves switching funds from capital investment to subsidies. Capital investment, especially in roadbuilding, should be reviewed regularly in the light of population and employment trends, as necessary.

A Price we can Afford?

This plan does not call for a significant change in the amount of public spending in the region. The total cost of all the proposals is not likely to be very different from the total amount which would be spent in any case. It does, however, involve changes in the way the available money is used. It also implies an increased emphasis on local government spending. Central government spending could increase at a slower rate than in the past decade, and local government spending at a faster rate. We estimate that the burden on the average ratepayer may increase by no more than 4% a year up to 1981, not allowing for inflation.

Local authorities in West Central Scotland already spend more per person than the national average. In 1971-72, the sum spent from the rates and government grants was £110.33 per person compare to £106 in Scotland as a whole and £89.30 in England and Wales. In other words, the householder in West Central Scotland pays half as much again as the average domestic ratepayer in England and Wales, while the businessman in Glasgow may have a rates bill per employee about twice as high as he would face in Birmingham. The difference is partly due to local authority policies and partly to the high cost of tackling problems in areas of special need and poor environment.

We believe the effectiveness of local authority spending programmes should be looked at. The region’s share of rate support grant should also be examined. A more radical definition of the “needs” element in the formula by which rate support grant is calculated would give West Central Scotland a fairer share of public funds