Making America Lesser Again

Space for Trump in the rubble

November the fifth is fireworks night in the UK when tradition has it that we celebrate the failure of the attempt to assassinate King James 1. This year it coincided with the American Presidential election which celebrated the failure to assassinate Donald Trump by decisively giving him a second term as the American President. The old British custom of burning effigies of hate figures would no doubt appeal to the 47th President. 

The world has reacted with a muted astonishment but it was always a strong possibility. Trump had created several populist narratives that appealed to the emotional beliefs of the majority of American citizens. Despite the worldwide influence of American companies and the financial and military muscle of the USA, the majority of its citizens have an island mentality and are deeply rooted in a small-town culture, think of Ebbing, Missouri. They are cut off from the rest of the world by the two largest oceans and most working Americans don't have long holidays. They are less worldly and globally aware than Europeans and Asians. 

Donald Trump is the master of tapping into their distrust of the educated elite who dominate the institutions of American society and who have more progressive, or woke, political instincts than the majority of the American voters. They do not want to be swamped with more immigration, resent the cost of living increases as wages stagnate, and do not want to lose their freedom to burn gas and oil or shoot guns. They have little in common with a more inclusive and progressive Europe in which the UK is far more closely aligned on social, environmental and economic issues.

The reaction to Trump's victory has more than a whiff of hypocrisy. Presidents, Prime Ministers and Oligarchs have congratulated him and reassured him of their desire to work alongside the USA. It is a response to their fear of economic retaliation that he has threatened to weaponise against countries and regimes that are not prepared to make unilateral deals with him.  Contrary to Trump's promise to make America great again, there is a lot of evidence suggesting that his direction of travel may have the opposite effect and will have serious consequences for the wider world economy. climate change, the environment and international cooperation. Paradoxically, it may make America lesser again as trade declines and a new world order takes shape.

There are several main concerns about what happens next.

Climate Action requires the nations of the world to work collaboratively to ensure that the targets have been set or met by all of the nations working together. Trump has shown by his statements that he is dismissive of climate change and has no commitment to climate action. He has given strong support to drilling for oil and gas and claims that America has more oil and gas than the rest of the world which is beautiful. His threats to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and COP will result in serious damage and give license to other non-believers to follow suit. His motorcades are a visible example of his disdain for any environmental integrity. 

The United Nations and NATO are both essential organisations to ensure peace and protect the weaker nations from poverty, provide relief from emergencies, tackle famine and disease and challenge the activities of tyrants and despots when they seek to expand their empires, carry out genocide or infringe human rights. Trump has little regard for the United Nations which he sees as competition to American hegemony and he sees NATO as an expensive tax on the USA which must be funded more fully by Europe. 

Ukraine and Gaza are wars that have resulted in thousands of unnecessary deaths and show no sign of finishing. Negotiations are difficult with unrepentant aggressors and determined defenders of sovereign territories. American arms manufacturers provide the vast majority of weapons being used by Ukraine and Israel. Trump's claim to settle the Ukraine war in 24 hours is a craven solution that would trade Ukrainian territory under the threat of cutting the supply of weapons, This would be the opposite solution than in Gaza where the supply of weapons will continue to enable the destruction of Gaza, were 45,000 citizens have already been killed and the majority of buildings and infrastructure destroyed.. This is despite the United Nations 1947 agreement to partition Palestine into two states, Palestine and Israel, and their support for a ceasefire. Netanyahu is seeking to eliminate the possibility of a two state solution and Trump is likely to be supportive. This would be despite a motion from 52 countries, mainly in the Middle East, to stop the supply of weapons to Israel, these are largely provided by the USA. Trump's belligerence could detonate a far wider conflict in the Middle East. He shows little respect for the United Nations and its agencies that are charged with providing humanitarian relief.

Tariffs are his favourite word because increasing tariffs will restrict imports from other nations particularly those whom he feels damage American business. In this respect, he negotiates and behaves as a transactional businessman. Someone who always wants to win a deal rather than secure a long-term relationship or establish a new initiative which will give wider long-term benefits to all sides. Trump is for the short term and for his own interest. These align with populist opinion in the United States and he uses this as a justification for many of his policies.

Economic policy in Trump's second term. is about reducing taxes and huge reductions in federal spending. Elon Musk has inveigled his way into being the frontrunner to deliver savings in government departments and agencies. We know how effective he has been in downsizing Twitter into X or should that be x and in the process losing millions of users and 79% of its value according to Google AI. The savings in federal spending are assumed to be achieved by reducing the number of departments and staff employed by federal agencies but the majority of the spending is on military, welfare payments and medicare. This could be a revelation to Musk who will face his armageddon if he fails the antichrist.  Meanwhile, oil and gas companies will be given new licenses and the Rust Belt will be magically reinvigorated as was promised in 2016 but with little effect. A film starring Frances McDormand as a released felon reprising that day in Butler, Pennsylvania is more likely than Trump rescuing the Rust Belt. 

Russia and China relationships will be revisited by Trump. They are the two nations with the resources and military strength to challenge the USA. Trump believes that he has the acumen to make deals with them that were beyond the capacity of previous Presidents who have been controlled by the federal establishment. In the case of Russia, he sees an opportunity to allow Putin to carry out and retain land from other nations such as Ukraine and Georgia in exchange for terminating the war by America reducing its provision of weapons to Ukraine. Relations with China will be based on the threat of tariffs for imported goods and securing more beneficial trade deals. The consequence may well benefit the United States as well as Russia and China but will have repercussions across the rest of the world. He believes in bilateral transactions rather than negotiated and nuanced treaties that engage a far larger number of nations.

Immigration is the other big-ticket policy. Trump promises to significantly reduce the number of unauthorised immigrants. Yet under President Biden, this achieved a high in 2023 of 3.2 million according to statista. This compares with 2.6 million authorised immigrants in 2022. Mexico and Central American countries dominate both legal and illegal immigration to the United States. Trump has promised mass deportation of 10 million or more illegal migrants and said that there is no price tag on this. The American Immigration Council has put a price of $88bn per annum to achieve this over ten years. That's over nine times the value of X(x) formerly known as Twitter each year so Elon will have his work cut out to find the savings or cryptocurrency to pay for this. It is a reminder that Trump seldom worries about detail when making announcements aimed at giving oxygen to the emotional concerns of the electorate.  The impact of losing the immigrant workforce, let alone the damage to their families and children's education is not part of his narrative but could seriously damage the  American economy.

The Department of Justice is headed by an Attorney General appointed by the President. Trump will select someone known to be supportive and loyal. He/she will be expected to suspend his 34 felony charges and criminal convictions and pursue those who have taken action against him, some of whom have been named already. It suggests that Justice will become a controversial issue with constitutional implications. This will extend to International agreements that stand in the way of Trump's disruptive agendas.

All of these consequences suggest that the USA could become far more insular.  The growth of gated communities in many towns and cities to protect the wealthy could be upsized to make America a gated country as it erects borders and removes itself from trade agreements and global organisations. Trump is more likely to make America a super-sized Dingley Dell than great again. Is it worth the effort of other nations to genuflect on President Trump? Trump's America will not be the UK or Europe's special or beautiful friend. It is more likely to be the End of the American Dream, particularly with the cast of disruptors that Donald Trump Jnr is advocating for key positions. As a film, it would be a cross of Dirty Dozen with Ocean's Eleven and a box office hit but it has no star-spangled cast, just junketeers.

At half mast