Social Care: the Government are deceiving, delegating and delusional

Social care but only for the lucky few 

So the social care crisis that everyone agrees has reached breaking point is going to be solved by allowing Councils to increase council tax by 6% over the next 3 years. Mrs May claims that this is a sustainable solution. She is either dafter or more devious than I had taken her for. Most of the media fell for it, the ability of journalists to gather or make any useful diagnosis of government press releases is increasingly disturbing. The BBC in particular are culpable with their health correspondent having a palpable lack of analytical skills. The NHS has been cast by the media as the poster public service in relation to the needs of the elderly. The hard truth has been apparent for years; it is social care that has been underfunded and allowed to disintegrate in the face of a rapidly ageing population with a significant longer life expectation.

Lets examine the facts.

• Over the next 3 years the Office of National Statistics (ONS) predicts a rise in the number of over 75's of 8.1%. (Over 75s is a better measure of the need for care than the over 65's - the majority of whom live independently.)
• The increase in care costs over the last 3 years, when inflation was almost negligible, was 7.1%. For the sake of simplicity lets assume that it will continue at this level for the next 3 years. In reality inflation will push these costs higher. 
• If care costs increase by 7.1% and there is 8.1% growth in the over 75s, the total increase in cost to keep services at present day levels will be 8.67%. Yet everyone agrees that these levels of service are unacceptable.
• Council tax in England provides only £23bn (24%) of the total council expenditure of £96bn.  
• The rest of council income comes from charges, 10% e.g. nursery fees, school meals, planning and building control fees and car parking, a further 10% comes from business rates, and 55% from government through the revenue support grant.
• So over 3 years, the government will give permission for local government to increase council tax by 6%. This will be ring fenced for social care but applies to only the 24% of councils total budget. 
• That adds up to 1.5% growth in council funding for social care over 3 years compared to a growth of 8.67% in social care needs. 
• The funding gap may increase further as the introduction of a national living wage of £9 by 2020 and the loss of workers from the EU are factored in.
• Many existing care providers have claimed that they are operating at a loss and may not be able to survive without increased payments from councils.
• Sajid Javed is now claiming that the government will fund another £240m for social care but this will be diverted from council's new homes budgets. 

In other words the government will allow councils to raise just a sixth of the total increase in care costs over the next three years. There is no attempt to address the present shortfall in social care provision that has prompted the crisis. It will, of course, allow the government to claim that they have made funding available to councils and that councils must decide priorities. If some councils manage to meet social care demands they will be quoted as a justification of the government's policy. Other councils will be tarred by Ministers who are teflon-coated when it comes to accountability for their austerity policies.

Mrs May, this is not sustainable and it follows a cut of £1.95bn in grants for social care over the last 6 years by the Cameron governments. Social care has been protected by councils as much as possible, which is why libraries and sports facilities have closed, buildings have been allowed to detiorate, roads have not been repaired, assets have been flogged off and dozens of other local services have been starved of funding.

This is a deception that even such post-truth luminaries such as Michael Gove, Liam Fox and Ian Duncan Smith would be proud of. Delegating responsibility for investing more on social care to councils at the same time as stripping them of funding and assets is morally reprehensible. Or it could be that ministers are supine in the face of the social care crisis that they have imposed on the frail elderly and disabled. Justice is being served cold by the May government, it is a cruel twist of Mrs May's pledge on becoming PM. She is, to translate her rhetoric into reality, 'entrenching the disadvantages for the unfortunate many.'