Broken Britain

According to numerous sources, the UK has become the laughing stock of the world as we have struggled to fight Covid, pretended that Brexit hasn't led to the collapse of many businesses and created shortages of food, materials and labour and at the same time forsaken our role in world affairs as witnessed by the cuts to International Development.

In the past two weeks, we have been hit by a fourfold increase in gas prices. Yet we have the lowest stored gas capacity of any European country, 9 terawatt-hours or 2% of annual demand, compared to 26 -37% in the four largest European countries. The UK adopted a "just-in-time" approach that has made us more susceptible to shortages and price escalation. The government and its regulators have also encouraged switching to 60 new energy companies. These companies have failed to secure future supply at prices within the government's capping limits. Yet another government own goal with households and businesses left to fund the gap 

This week the crisis is at petrol filling stations as shortage of HGV drivers led to delayed deliveries. This was then made worse by the government saying there is no need to panic but most members of the public have previous experience that advice from Grant Shapps, the laid back Minister of Transport, cannot be trusted, so they charged out to fill up. 

Meanwhile the supermarkets, who have performed superbly though Covid are now offering empty shelves of many products. A couple of weeks ago it was the lack of carbon dioxide owing to increased energy costs that meant a shortage of CO2 for the packaging of meat and fruit. Now we are faced with other products not arriving because of driver shortages. When the supermarkets and haulage industry tell us that Christmas is under threat, it sounds possible given all the other problems that are accumulating. All talk of resilience and strategy by the government seems to be no more than a quick extract from their playbook of excuses. This government knows not the cost of resilience nor the value of strategic planning.

Meanwhile, inflation levels are spiralling upwards. Building materials such as timber, glass, steelwork have increased by 20-30%, the cost of eating out has risen by 10-20%, and rail fares are set to increase again as well as a drastic cut in the number of services. Add these inflationary factors to energy, vehicle (car prices have risen by 15.2% in a year), food, clothes and household appliance rises and we are in the midst of the most damaging bout of inflation since the late 1980s when Mrs Thatcher let things rip. Yet the word that no one in government or the opposition party will utter in relation to these events is Brexit.

All of these events precede the Covid consequences that are about to kick in. October marks the end of the furlough scheme for 1.6 million workers and the Universal Credit uplift of £20 for 6 million people. It is unlikely that the government can shift the opprobrium for the effect of the loss of these income streams to anyone but themselves, although they will try.

Olaf Scholz, the probable new Chancellor of Germany, explained our crisis to Channel 4 news better than any government minister has managed. In slightly hesitant but perfectly cogent English, he explained that many European countries including Germany and France as well as the UK have demographic profiles that mean there is a shortage of workers and an increasingly elderly population. The free movement of labour in the EU was designed to tackle this. Countries in the EU were also suffering a shortage of HGV drivers, care workers and agricultural workers but free movement allowed some cover from elsewhere in the EU. Those workers who had left the UK as a result of Brexit would be unlikely to return for short term jobs (the UK government has offered only 3 months for HGV drivers or poultry farm workers) when there are other issues to be sorted out such as visas, housing, tax and other possible constraints. 

He said that the EU would try to help but the UK had known about these issues during Brexit negotiations and it was invidious of UK ministers to constantly blame the EU. Mairead McGuinness, an Irish EU Commissioner, explained the crisis in similar terms and spoke eloquently about the importance of protecting the people of Northern Ireland from the trade agreement arising from Brexit. There is increasing evidence that the EU appears more concerned about the impact of Brexit and other UK decisions on the people of the UK than the Westminster Government. 

Yes Minister was ahead of time when it lampooned the incompetence of the UK government when faced with adversity but there is little humour when the current state of the UK is beyond even the most vivid imagination of comedic script writers.